New York - It makes fans of Hillary Clinton very
anxious every time I state this simple fact: attendance at the Democratic
candidate's rallies is mediocre at best.
The pictures have told the story over the past six
months. Republican Donald Trump is filling convention centres, airport hangars
and parks. Clinton, on the other hand, is filling community centres and small
colleges, but just barely.
The people campaigning for her - the rock stars of
the Democratic Party like First Lady Michelle Obama, President Barack Obama and
Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders - have bigger and more energetic crowds.
Moreover, as Clinton goes into the final weekend of
campaigning, she is drawing on mega-celebrities to attract people to her cause
by holding separate events with musicians Pharrell Williams, Jay Z and Katy
Perry.
There was a momentary spike this past week in Tempe,
Arizona where, aside from July's Democratic National Convention, she had one of
her biggest rallies yet.
More than 10,000 people attended an event where she
went solo. But you could chalk that up to the fact a Democratic presidential
nominee in Arizona is rare. Unlike Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin, New Hampshire and other battleground states, Arizonans aren't
bombarded with campaign stops.
Conservative media and Trump himself have pointed to
the smaller size of the rallies and bring it up all the time.
"I have to say, we have rallies like this and
we have seven, eight, nine, ten thousand routinely," he boasted back in
September at a stop in North Carolina. "Hillary goes out for rallies and
yesterday I think she had 200 people, maybe 300."
But some analysts believe that, contrary to Trump's
persistent assertion that there's a "silent majority" in the US who
want him to win, the opposite may be true and that could explain at least some
of the low numbers at Clinton rallies.
Proud Trump supporters
There is no doubt Trump supporters are proud to say
they're voting for him. That's been evident since the beginning of his
campaign.
But Lara Brown, an associate professor of political
management at George Washington University, argues size doesn't necessarily
matter.
"Trump is a novelty and for some, to say that
they went is like saying they went to a sporting event," she argues.
"Trump has also regularly been going to places where he is most beloved,
not where the ground game is most competitive."
Other analysts believe many are simply reluctant to
admit they're on Clinton's side.
The controversies surrounding her - the use of a
private email server while secretary of state, allegations she gave special
access to world leaders while in government in exchange for donations to her family's
foundation and, more recently, a FBI investigation into her staff emails - have
made it harder for people to show their love.
TIMELINE: Who got the right to vote when?
"I've had a number of students tell me that
they're reluctant to be too public or too publicly enthusiastic over their
support for Clinton," says Chris Galdieri, assistant professor at St
Anselm College in New Hampshire. But he believes the support is there.
"My wife recently took our daughter to see
Clinton at an event here in New Hampshire," he says. "And met women
from New Hampshire and other states who had brought their daughters with them
specifically to see Clinton, because there's a good likelihood she will be the
first woman president."
The Clinton campaign insists they've baked in the
small numbers into their strategy. At a stop in Winterville, North Carolina, I
asked one of Clinton's top aides whether she's concerned about the mediocre
attendance.
"We've gone into less populous parts of the
state for a reason," said Jennifer Palmieri, Clinton's communications
director. "There are voters in this area [North Carolina] that we want to
turn out so if you go to a place where there aren't as many people who live
there, you aren't likely to get the crowds."
On a Friday conference call with reporters, Robby
Mook, Clinton's campaign manager, said they've had success in early voting
getting people who haven't cast a ballot much in the past - so-called "low
propensity voters" - to come out to the polls.
But on the same call campaign officials barely
addressed questions about reports that African-American early voting is down
from 2012. That's a key group of people for Clinton.
At the end of the day, the voting booth is where the
attendance really counts.
"Enthusiasm is great, but it doesn't predict
the result," says Brown.
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